idea
Five lines: why I bought, and when I’m wrong
Every candidate gets why, evidence, invalidation, take-profit, and ops. Not a trade call.
Every time a candidate pops, I write five lines: why I bought, the evidence, when I’m wrong, where I sell, and whether a daily bar is enough. It is not a recommendation. It is a note so I can scold myself later.
Invalidation semantics
- Daily low ≤ stop → exit (thesis broken on bar close logic)
- Gap below stop → accept open slippage; still no realtime tape required
- Regime weakeners (e.g. SMA200 loss) → defer re-entry, not override stop math
Take-profit semantics
- Daily high ≥ target → reward leg completed at planned R
- Alternative exit modes (SMA50 flip, Donch trail) are backtest variants — see exit comparison posts
What we omit on the public site
Per-name entry marks, live position P&L, and broker routing. Those stay in private state/scanner_theses_latest artifacts.